Schwieterman: Feeder Cattle Futures Higher as Corn Prices Fall

Tuesday, July 12, 2011

cattlenetwork.com

Corn
Trends
Short Term: Down
Net Long Futures and Options: 154796
Long Term: Down
Change: -6000
Overnight Trade: U -10 3/4 Z -12 3/4
Opening Calls: Higher

The corn numbers weren’t as negative as feared. Ending stocks estimates for both the old crop and new crop were higher than last month at 880 and 870 million respectively, which was expected, but not as high as the average trade guesses. New crop ending stocks are still below 1 billion, which is a psychological boost, and will return the focus of the market to the weather, which at the moment is turning more bullish.


Wheat
Trends
Short Term: Down

Net Long Futures and Options: -51255
Long Term: Down
Change: -3000
Overnight Trade: Chicago: U -12 3/4 KC: U -10 1/4
Opening Calls: Higher

The wheat numbers ended up being friendly with the new crop ending stocks estimate actually falling below last month at 670 million. Surprisingly, to me at least, was that this was not because of lower production. Production was actually increased, but the demand figures were increased enough, particularly exports, to offset the higher production. This should allow for a decent short covering rally in the wheat.


Soybeans
Trends
Short Term: Up Net Long Futures and Options: 33449
Long Term: Down Change: +1000
Overnight Trade: U -11 X-11 1/4
Opening Calls: Mixed

The soybean figures were slightly negative with the old crop ending stocks at 200 million and new crop at 175. Since the numbers were really close to expectations I think that the weather will be a lot more important that the report today and the rest of the week. The heat moving into the corn belt should be supportive to the market.

Live Cattle
Trend
Short Term: Up
Long Term: Up
Opening Calls: 10-30 Lower

Live cattle futures closed steady to moderately higher on Monday, as traders ignored slumping world economic concerns to rally from sharply lower opening trade. Limit higher move in the August lean hog contract provided support. Hogs are higher on rumors of large exports into China. Less competing meat into the fourth quarter should provide excellent support for the fat cattle market. Overnight markets have trimmed back most of Monday’s gains. equities continue to struggle.

Feeder Cattle
Trends
Short Term: Up
Long Term: Up
Opening Call: 30-50 Lower

Feeder cattle futures posted moderate to stout gains on Monday, supported by lower corn and higher fats. Cash feeders continue to support, at near record high levels. This mornings’ grain supply/demand report could change opening calls for the feeders. Expectations for a low June placement number will add support.

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